Dr Xu Video

MS River in Danger of Being Captured by the Atchafalaya River

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MS River in Danger of Being Captured by the Atchafalaya River — Not a Matter of “If”, But a Matter of “When”

Dr. Y. Jun Xu, world-renowned hydrologist of Louisiana State University, explains how South Louisiana is on the verge of one of the worlds most detrimental natural disasters in history.

Video credit to Swamp Gear and Inclusive Productions.

 

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34 Comments

  1. Jerry Neal on May 24, 2019 at 8:36 am

    Great overview of what the powers that be seem to be ignoring. The time of awareness is overdue. Let’s not screw this developing potential for disaster like we’ve done by ignoring the disaster that’s happening within our wetlands before our eyes.

    In my view, this overview along with additional information contained within this presentation would be of particular interest to the Fortune 500 companies that have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in the heavy industrial corridor located on the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. These industrial plants as is would not be operable with the possible intrusion of salt water upriver to Baton Rouge.

    Based on the hard data within this presentation; not to take the consequence of this natural disaster seriously would be a mistake. Public and corporate awareness is required to initiate a response to possibly create a solution to this impending disaster.

    Mother nature isn’t going to wait around to see what we do to deal with her wishes.

  2. Elizabeth Naquin on May 24, 2019 at 10:25 am

    Five deltas. FIVE deltas. Spread the wealth and rebuild the entire coast. Atchafalaya doesn’t have to take the whole brunt of the excess flow. If the Corps wants to control the River so badly, then use diversion to go back into the original deltas from long ago. You have Atchafalaya, Teche, Lafourche, St. Bernard, and Belize. Instead of relying on Bonnet Carre and sending fresh water into the Lake where it doesn’t belong, why are we not putting it where it used to go to build back the land that it originally made. Terrebonne Parish is called Good Earth for a reason. It was made from all the ancient flooding between the Teche and Lafourche deltas. Why can’t we divert River water back into all of the five deltas to take the pressure off of Atchafalaya? Big project sure. Huge! But we’ve spent billions already on coastal and river projects that haven’t worked already, and this is something that we know will work because Mother Nature proved it worked before we came here and tried to control the most powerful River Basin on the North American Continent. When you turn that hose on in your back yard and it’s just lying there without someone controlling it, it wants to snake around right? Well, let’s control the snake and divert the water into the five deltas and rebuild our land while we’re doing it.

    • Adam kruse on May 31, 2019 at 4:08 pm

      Amen. You are 100% correct.

      • Jim on June 4, 2019 at 8:25 pm

        Well said

    • Ann on June 3, 2019 at 10:55 am

      The Corps of Engineers you can thank for playing God..don’t fix what isn’t broken

  3. Bill Ory on May 26, 2019 at 2:10 pm

    I hope that never happens. I believe we need safeguards and or maintenance in place along those troubled areas to keep that stretch of of river dredged at periotic times. Having the information makes it possible to do something about it in my opinion.

  4. Amy on May 26, 2019 at 11:08 pm

    The really interesting thing about this is I learned about the Morganza and Old River Control Structure crisis when I was in 9th grade Louisiana history way back in the ’70s.

    • Linda Mullins on June 3, 2019 at 12:09 pm

      But. There are several generations that have not been taught this vital information, because history is being changed to suit political issues. They might be making these decisions .

    • Dwight Francis David on June 6, 2019 at 2:34 am

      Move to higher ground let the river flow

  5. Mike Waller on May 27, 2019 at 7:16 am

    So what are the options that are being considered at this time?

  6. Jim Conte on May 27, 2019 at 7:40 am

    Golly, A PhD in Hydrology isn’t needed. It is intuitively obvious that the Mississippi has changed course many times.
    It is a solar powered earth mover. Mountain ranges have eroded away and been re-deposited as flatlands and river
    deltas.

    • Mario on June 2, 2019 at 10:59 am

      Solar powered earth mover?! How the hell does the sun have an effect on this, besides heating the water? Good lord child, go back to school

      • Butch on June 4, 2019 at 2:18 pm

        That guy is a quack!!

      • David on June 7, 2019 at 8:31 pm

        The sun powers the water cycle. It’s why rivers flow. Maybe you’re being ironic.

      • Steve Gough on June 7, 2019 at 9:15 pm

        As a hydrologist, yes, it’s solar powered, the sun drives the water cycle, water evaporates from the ocean, rain falls on land at a higher altitude, and flows downhill.

    • Lorenzo Poe on June 5, 2019 at 1:26 pm

      Gravity. The word you are looking or is gravity. As in a ‘gravity powered earth mover’.

      • D McD on June 7, 2019 at 11:08 pm

        Solar powered works fine, as does gravity. Sun provides the energy needed to raise water high enough that gravity can do the rest. No sun, no rivers. Conservation of energy at work.

  7. Lynn on May 28, 2019 at 9:13 am

    Communities near the flood control structures, just south but far upriver from Morgan City such as Morganza, Fordoche, Livonia, False River…. would they also be in danger? Would the spillway levees be enough to control the flow in that area? At what point would the flow escape the levee system and start to spread? Some of many questions which should be answered.

    • Billy on May 28, 2019 at 3:55 pm

      They took the water away from the Atchafalaya river to help Mississippi River , all our Lakes, Bays, Bayous and the River fill up with sand to help stop our coast from washing away , now the water can’t spread out fast enough when it pass between Morgan City and Berwick , if you pour water in a funnel to fast it will over fill , the smart people cause this , now we have to deal with it . When I was a young man (1970) an you got to the real mouth of Atchafalaya River you could not see land , now all you see is land for miles , the old shrimpers name one blend in the River Fools Point because it was over 170 feet deep and had deep eddie’s , you would be a fool try to past though them in a small boat !! Now it might have 50′ of water !

      • Mario on June 2, 2019 at 11:01 am

        In 2009 when I was operating offshore tugs, I passed over fools point. It registered at 219 feet.

  8. Billy on May 28, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    They took the water away from the Atchafalaya river to help Mississippi River , all our Lakes, Bays, Bayous and the River fill up with sand to help stop our coast from washing away , now the water can’t spread out fast enough when it pass between Morgan City and Berwick , if you pour water in a funnel to fast it will over fill , the smart people cause this , now we have to deal with it . When I was a young man (1970) an you got to the real mouth of Atchafalaya River you could not see land , now all you see is land for miles , the old shrimpers name one blend in the River Fools Point because it was over 170 feet deep and had deep eddie’s , you would be a fool try to past though them in a small boat !! Now it might have 50′ of water !

  9. Billy on May 28, 2019 at 4:04 pm

    They took the water away from the Atchafalaya river to help Mississippi River , all our Lakes, Bays, Bayous and the River fill up with sand to help stop our coast from washing away , now the water can’t spread out fast enough when it pass between Morgan City and Berwick , if you pour water in a funnel to fast it will over fill , the smart people cause this , now we have to deal with it . Sad !!!

  10. Julie on May 29, 2019 at 12:16 am

    We were taught in grade school that the Mississippi River had changed course many times throughout history and that eventually, it would take its natural course, that is, towards the Atchafalaya. NOLA and BR do not want to lose the River so hell and be damned with the rest of us. Do any of you remember that commercial from the 1960’s- “It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature.”. She will always win. I agree with the Five Deltas idea.
    Hoping some with clear minds and a sense of decency will prevail.

    • Margaret on June 3, 2019 at 8:02 pm

      Not likely — “they” work for our government!

  11. R. Mark Conger, PhD on May 29, 2019 at 7:28 am

    I’m going to keep it professional, but this guy is not the expert on the subject matter. You need to research your sources better. This is one man’s opinion. There are better qualified professors at LSU and other universities that have better explanations for this natural phenomenon of Deltaic migration. Your source fails to discuss this at all. Furthermore, implying mass immediate evacuation is overblown. We all have a degree of professional responsibly to society which includes not unnecessarily working up people beyond the realities. We have employed the best flood control assets in the world and when Mother Nature does change the course of the river, we will appropriately deal with it again.

    • Wade on June 2, 2019 at 1:52 pm

      I believe you may have missed the part where he said “if”, regarding people having to evacuate. This video was obviously edited a lot, so I’m sure there is a lot that was left out.

      You started you comment stating that you were going to keep it professional and you did anything but that. You’re combative in your comments and it’s not necessary. Science evolves from opinions and develops from there. Could this guy be wrong? Sure. But so could every other scientist out there.
      It seems as though maybe you have an axe to grind with this guy.

  12. Rod Brackin on May 29, 2019 at 8:08 am

    From a Lehman’s point of view, mind you. What the experts are telling us is that if you can’t stop the flow of water you better start working on the plumbing. Water is going to seek its own level. If you’re in the way so be it. The Morganza control structure has and is doing what it was designed to do but the rules are changing and Mother Nature makes the rules. It may be time to start paying the piper. We as a people have greatly enjoyed the benefits that the Mississippi River has provided and allowed us to build upon. So let’s do what’s required to hold onto it or we can just sit back and see what happens!

  13. Stuart Salassi on May 29, 2019 at 9:35 pm

    Either way, with all the water coming through our state, we need a leader that is proactive in fixing this potential nightmare. There are things that can be done successfully that are not. The catastrophic events that will take place if this happens are a testament to the lack of leadership this state is and has been suffering for decades is horrific. This event would turn this world on its head if it is allowed to happen. I just found out about this a week or so ago, but I will not stop speaking about this until we get the correct answers, and the idea that the few that know about it and we are not even seeing or hearing a thing proactive in trying to fix it, other than opening the spillways. There should be huge monster ships that keep the River and gulf dredged out paid for by the all who have the River pass through their state. Also, re routing many of the bends, straightening out the River , allowing for more oxbow lakes and raising the height of the levees are all ideas that should have been done obviously a long time ago. The future politicians in this state will have some huge obstacles in their way if they don’t help solve this potential nuclear situation. What a shame, Quoting Randy Newman, They trying to wash us away…They trying to wash us way😡

  14. Travis London on June 1, 2019 at 8:20 pm

    Army Corp of Engineers, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, and other entities alike should had did better job in monitoring water bodies rather than helping so many chemical industry and pipeline projects in Louisiana since 2010. I brought up predictions on flooding in the 2009 Brownsfield conference. I wonder if Lousiana will still go along with the six pipeline projects and the many proposed plant projects proposed to connect to those six pipelines along the gulf stretching from Texas to Mississippi to start the LNG boom they want to use to boost Louisiana’s economy. We losing swamps. Storms are more vicious now and bring on more water. The weather be out of wack due to so many oil spills. Corporations and politicians who don’t care about Louisiana are killing us.

  15. Kenneth Ramagost on June 3, 2019 at 10:35 am

    FAKE NEWS At 6:00 on the video.
    The Mississippi River is monitored for height and when a certain height is reached the Morganza spillway is opened preventing failure of control structures. Also I talked to the CORPS head of the control structures and there is better monitoring technology today as compared to 1973. They can monitor along structure spans and react to any concerns. Undercutting of structures take time and the CORPS can react and stop a collapse before it occurs.

    • Lornezo Poe on June 5, 2019 at 1:35 pm

      The Morganza Spillway is below the Old River Control structure.
      Opening the Morganza Spillway will have little to do with pressure on the Old River Control structure.

  16. Charlotte Bennett on June 4, 2019 at 10:22 am

    Open up The Morganza Spillway before we all drown!! This is the first time this genre has experienced this situation. Do what’s best for the people. SCARED!

  17. Warthog on June 6, 2019 at 8:35 am

    The only reason people are scared is because of alarmist videos just like this. The quy knows little to nothing about the total design of the Atchafalaya Floodway, talking only about the Old River Control Structure and the Morganza Spillway (both parts of the EAST Atchafalaya Floodway). Never mentioned is the WEST Atchafalaya Floodway, a flow-path EQUAL IN CAPACITY to the East Floodway. The West Floodway is a “safeguard of last resort”, as it is opened by blowing up a low-sill levee. BUT. of the ORCS appears likely to fail, the West Floodway WILL be opened. Folks also need to understand that more and more land north of Louisiana is being converted to parking lots and infrastructure that dumps a lot of water into the system “quickly”, as opposed to slow runoff and seeping into the subsoil as with “natural” drainage.

  18. Cindy on June 6, 2019 at 8:54 am

    My children from Texas attend LSU . I am concerned about the water levels in both rivers and am frightened the levee system will breach near the campus.

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